Predicting the future value of the Australian dollar has almost become a national sport. It is certainly the most common question we get asked these days.

Usually the motivation behind the enquiry is because everyone seems to be planning an overseas holiday or shopping online to take advantage of the currency.

The historic value of the Aussie dollar to the US dollar has been around the mid 70 US cents to low 80s.

But when the currency hit $US1.10 around the middle of last year many currency experts were saying it could go to $1.50.

Times have changed. At the current $1.03 there looks to be a greater chance of the Aussie falling over the foreseeable future than rising back toward the $1.10.

A slowing Chinese economy, falling coal and iron prices, expected cuts to interest rates and improving US economy seem to be combining to soften our currency.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see it dip back under parity to the greenback.

While such a move would make imports more expensive, it will be a welcome tonic for exporters.