PIIGS to the Slaughter!

Fear and panic swept European and US markets overnight which, if it continues, could send the world in to another Global Financial Crisis.

At one stage the Dow Jones Index was down 997 points as investors feared the Greek financial bailout package wouldn’t be enough and other European countries would get in to the same strife.

I’ve been warning about the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) of Europe for a while now but last night it came to a head.

The fear is that the $200 billion being spent to bailout Greece won’t be enough to stop it defaulting on its debts and, after the violent protests of the last couple of days, the Greeks won’t have the guts to implement its promised austerity program.

On top of that, markets now fear that because of the size of the Greek rescue, if other countries (like Portugal and Spain) get in to trouble there won’t be enough money to help them.

Credit rating giant Moody’s has warned that banks across Europe are under threat from their financial exposure to the PIIGS. For example, French banks have $85 billion invested in Greece and the Germans $43 billion.

The last GFC in October 2008 was sparked by the fear of banks collapsing.

In May 2010 it’s the fear of countries collapsing.

It could get ugly.


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Coping With Interest Rate Rises

This week's interest rate rise is not doing anyone any favours. It's the sixth time the Reserve Bank has raised rates since last October, and this is putting added financial pressure on a lot of home-owners. No one expected rates to climb this quickly, but it looks like the trend will continue at least until the end of the year. If this is really hurting you, it’s worth exploring a few options so you don’t end up paying more in interest than you need to.piggybank180x180

1. Consolidate your loans

If you have a number of different loans – a car loan, a personal loan and a credit card, for example – it’s worth consolidating these into one loan. Look for a bank that will offer you a low rate if you transfer a number of debts into the one loan. But don't be fooled – some banks charge an attractive interest rate in the first year to lure you, and then hit you with a higher rate to make up for the "good deal". Be careful though because you still need to pay the new loan off as quickly as possible because interest will keep mounting.

2. Think about fixing a portion of your home loan

You’ll have to crunch some numbers to work out whether this is a good option for you, but if you decide to fix all or part of your loan now you may end up paying less in interest in the future as rates are expected to keep rising for some time. But take care to ensure the fixed rate the bank will offer you isn’t too high – some banks' fixed rates are already well over long-term interest rate trends, which could mean you end up paying more than you need to when rates eventually plateau. We told Sunrise viewers last August to look at fixing their rates but since then they've just kept climbing.


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Meeting an ANZAC hero

Just before ANZAC Day I met one hell of an inspirational couple. Keith Payne is a great Australian supported by an equally great Australian in his wife Flo.

Keith is our oldest living Victoria Cross recipient and a true ANZAC hero.Keith_Paine_VC-1

Joining up at the age of 19, Keith fought in Korea then Malaya before becoming a Sergeant-Major and serving in PNG.

In May 1969, during the Vietnam War, Keith was commander of the 1st Mobile Strike Force Battalion near the town Ben Het in Vietnam. Keith’s unit was outnumbered and attacked by the North Vietnamese in a battle which lasted for days. Wounded in the attack and under the cover of darkness, Keith went out and rescued 40 injured or isolated mates and guided them to safety. All this while the battle was still being waged.

It’s a remarkable story of heroism, the Anzac spirit and mateship.


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Interest Rates Up Again But Now At Average

I was wrong. The Reserve Bank has put up official interest rates this afternoon by 0.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent.

A couple of things to come out of the statement;

  • the RBA says that rates are back to their average level for a normal economy. That tends to indicate the RBA is happy to be back at this level and will probably stay there for a little while barring any surprises.
  • the report also said that while inflation seems to be moderating, the RBA doesn't expect inflation to fall as much as they expected and is likely to stay at the upper end of the 2-3 per cent target band which the central bank is comfortable with. If inflation does spike up above 3 per cent the RBA would rates further to try and bring it down.

All eyes will now be on next week's Federal Budget to make sure the Government does its bit to keep the economy "normal". That means cutting back stimulus spending and other costs.

If the economy shows signs of heating up then rates will rise again to cool it down.

There are a number of leading economists predicting official interest rates will be 5.25-5.5 per cent in 12 months. That's almost 1 per cent higher than now.

 


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Interest Rate watch

First Tuesday of the month means Reserve Bank board meeting day and at 2.30pm this afternoon (I’ll tweet the decision just after 2.30pm) we’ll know whether rates are on the way up yet again.

From a low last year of 3 per cent, the official rate is now at 4.25 per cent with the Reserve Bank telling us that around 4.5 per cent is right for a “normal” economy.

The Reserve Bank is worried about inflation and the continuing boom in housing prices. I know there has been recent news of the return of inflation, and also yesterday figures from the Bureau of Statistics that house prices have risen 20 per cent in the last, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the RBA kept rates on hold today to see whether next week’s Federal Budget is good or bad for the economy.

If Wayne Swan delivers a reasonably tough budget which cuts back stimulus spending then the RBA will be happy the Government is doing its bit to slow the economy.

If Swan delivers a big spending election budget, the RBA will have to do his dirty work for him and continue to raise rates… they could go well past 5 per cent.


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